Use of earthquake scenarios for risk evaluation

Emergency planners have long used earthquake scenarios to predict potential shaking patterns during seismic events. However, these scenarios often fall short in two significant ways. Firstly, they fail to account for spatial variability and the correlation of ground motion, which can result in areas of differing intensity of shaking. Secondly, they treat each event in isolation without considering its return period. A novel approach has been developed to address these limitations by creating suites of scenarios that incorporate spatial correlation and, when combined, provide a comprehensive representation of the hazard across a region. These scenario suites offer valuable insights into ground motion impacts and risk evaluations.